Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison

By Thomas P. Bonczar

and Allen J. Beck, Ph.D.

BJS Statisticians

An estimated 5.1% of all persons in

the United States will be confined in a

State or Federal prison during their

lifetime, if incarceration rates recorded

in 1991 remain unchanged in the fu-

ture. The lifetime chances of a person

going to prison are higher for men

(9.0%) than for women (1.1%) and

higher for blacks (16.2%) and Hispan-

ics (9.4%) than for whites (2.5%). At

current levels of incarceration a black

male in the United States today has

greater than a 1 in 4 chance of going

to prison during his lifetime, while a

Hispanic male has a 1 in 6 chance and

a white male has a 1 in 23 chance of

serving time.

The lifetime likelihood of incarceration,

the focus of this study, represents the

percentage of all U.S. residents ex-

pected to be incarcerated in a prison at

some time in life. Such a measure is

hypothetical  based on the assump-

tion that recent rates of incarceration

(and death rates) will not change in the

future. Unlike a standard incarceration

rate, which expresses the prevalence

of incarceration on a single day, the

lifetime likelihood measure summa-

rizes the chances of a person being

incarcerated at some time over an

entire lifetime.

Bureau of Justice Statistics

Special Report

If recent incarceration rates remain

unchanged, an estimated 1 of every

20 persons (5.1%) will serve time in

a prison during their lifetime.

Men (9.0%) are over 8 times more

likely than women (1.1%) to be in-

carcerated in prison at least once

during their life.

Among men, blacks (28.5%) are

about twice as likely as Hispanics

(16.0%) and 6 times more likely than

whites (4.4%) to be admitted to

prison during their life.

Among women, 3.6% of blacks,

1.5% of Hispanics, and 0.5% of

whites will enter prison at least once.

The chance of going to prison for

the first time declines with age 

Chance of going

to prison during

Not yet

rest of life

incarcerated All White Black

by age

persons men men

Birth 5.1% 4.4% 28.5%

20 4.5 4.1 25.3

25 3.1 3.0 17.3

30 2.1 2.1 10.8

35 1.4 1.5 6.5

40 .9 1.1 3.6

45 .6 .8 2.1

Nearly two-thirds of those admitted

to prison for the first time will have

been on probation and a third will

have served a sentence to a local

jail or juvenile facility.

U.S. Department of Justice

Office of Justice Programs

Lifetime Likelihood of Going

to State or Federal Prison

10%

20%

30%

Hispanic

20 30 40 50

60 70

Age at first admission

Cumulative percent of males incarcerated

Black

16.0%

9.0%

4.4%

All males

Percentage of U.S. males likely to ever go to prison,

based on constant 1991 rates of first incarceration,

by age, race, and Hispanic origin

White

28.5%

Highlights

March 1997, NCJ-160092

The chances of going to prison,

by sex, race, and Hispanic origin

Life table procedures have been re-

peated for males and females, whites,

blacks, and Hispanics  subgroups

with different rates of death and first

incarceration. Estimates coming from

these procedures summarize the com-

bined impact of the differential rates.

Overall, an estimated 5.1% of all per-

sons in the United States will serve

time in a State or Federal prison during

their lifetime, if recent rates of first in-

carceration and mortality remain un-

changed (table 1).

Men are over 8 times more likely than

women to be incarcerated in prison at

least once during their lifetime. A male

has a 9.0% (or 1 in 11) chance in his

lifetime of going to prison, while a fe-

male has a 1.1% (or 1 in 91) chance.

Blacks in the U.S. resident population

(16.2%), regardless of their sex, are

nearly twice as likely as Hispanics

(9.4%) and 6 times more likely than

whites (2.5%) to be admitted to prison

during their lives.

Among men, more than 1 in 4 blacks

and 1 in 6 Hispanics, compared to 1 in

23 whites, will enter prison at least

once if current first-incarceration rates

Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison

Table 1. Chances of going to State or Federal prison for the first time, by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin

Cumulative percent of resident population expected to go

to State or Federal prison for the first time, by age

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 65 Lifetime

Total 1.1% 2.4% 3.3% 4.0% 4.4% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 5.1%

Sex

Male 2.0% 4.3% 5.9% 7.0% 7.8% 8.2% 8.5% 8.7% 9.0% 9.0%

Female .1 .3 .6 .8 .9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1

Race/Hispanic origin

White* .4% 0.9% 1.4% 1.7% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5%

Male .7 1.7 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4

Female 0 .2 .3 .4 .4 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5

Black* 4.1% 8.4% 11.6% 13.6% 14.9% 15.4% 15.7% 15.8% 16.0% 16.2%

Male 7.9 15.9 21.4 24.6 26.6 27.4 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.5

Female .3 1.1 2.0 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6

Hispanic 1.5% 3.6% 5.2% 6.3% 7.5% 8.2% 8.8% 9.1% 9.4% 9.4%

Male 2.8 6.3 8.8 10.7 12.7 13.9 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.0

Female .1 .4 .7 .9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5

Note: The cumulative percents represent the chances of being

admitted to State or Federal prison for the first time, by age. Estimates

were obtained by sequentially applying age-specific first

incarceration rates and mortality rates for each group to a hypo-

thetical population of 100,000 births. (See

Methodology

, page 8.)

*Excludes persons of Hispanic origin.

Summarizing life experiences

based on annual rates

Estimates of the lifetime likelihood

of going to prison are derived from

standard life table techniques used

by demographers and actuaries to

summarize observed rates and to

project them into the future. When

applied to the study of the U.S. prison

population, the lifetime estimates rep-

resent the combined experience of

first admission to prison and mortality

by age of the U.S. resident population

during a 12-month period.

The estimates do not reflect the expe-

rience of any actual group but rather

of a hypothetical group that is subject

to a fixed set of age-specific rates of

first incarceration and mortality. As

such, the estimates depict the pro-

jected mortality and incarceration ex-

perience of newborn U.S. residents,

assuming that the mortality and incar-

ceration rates observed during a

12-month period remain unchanged in

the future. ( See

Methodology

, page

8.)

Life table techniques have been ap-

plied in numerous fields to summarize

the likelihood that an event may oc-

cur. The following four examples use

lifetime rates to express statistics

about familiar life events:

5 out of 6 persons are expected to

be a victim of an attempted or com-

pleted violent crime (rape, robbery,

and assault, excluding murder) at

least once during life, based on

1975-84 annual victimization rates.

(See

Lifetime Likelihood of Victimiza-

tion,

BJS, NCJ-10427, March 1987.)

1 of every 100 men and of every

323 women are expected to be a vic-

tim of murder, based on 1978-80 an-

nual murder rates and lifetime

probabilities. (See

Crime in the

United States, 1981,

FBI.)

49.6% of all new marriages are

expected to end in divorce, based

on marriage and divorce statistics

for 1976-77. (See

National Estimates

of Marriage Dissolution and Survivor -

ship: United States,

National Center

for Health Statistics, November

1980.)

1 of every 8 American women are

projected to develop breast cancer

in their lifetime, if 1987-88 rates re-

main unchanged. (See

The Lifetime

Risk of Developing Breast Cancer

Journal of the National Cancer Insti-

tute, June 1993.)

do not change. An estimated 28.5%

of black men, 16.0% of Hispanic men,

and 4.4% of white men are expected

to serve a State or Federal prison

sentence.

In general, women have lower lifetime

chances of incarceration than men;

however, black women (3.6%) have

nearly the same chance as white men

(4.4%) of serving time in prison.

Among women, blacks are more than

twice as likely as Hispanics (1.5%) and

7 times more likely than whites (0.5%)

to be admitted to prison during their

lives.

The likelihood of going to prison,

by age

In addition to permitting calculation of

the lifetime chances of incarceration,

the same life table techniques produce

estimates of the likelihood of incarcer-

ation for persons at specific ages.

If the rates of first incarceration and

mortality recorded in 1991 remain

unchanged, an estimated 1.1% of all

persons born today will go to prison

by the time they are age 20; 3.3%

by the time they are 30; and 4.4%

by the time they are 40.

At every age, men have higher

chances of going to prison than

women, and blacks and Hispanics

have higher chances than whites.

Based on current rates of first incar-

ceration, an estimated 7.9% of black

males will enter State or Federal prison

by the time they are age 20, compared

to 2.8% of Hispanic males and 0.7% of

white males.

The percentages double in the next 5

years of life and then begin to increase

more slowly:

By age 25, 15.9% of black males,

6.3% of Hispanic males, and 1.7%

of white males are expected to have

served some time in State or Federal

prison.

By age 30  21.4% of black males,

8.8% of Hispanic males, and 2.5%

of white males

By age 35  24.6% of black males,

10.7% of Hispanic males, and 3.0%

of white males

By age 40  26.6% of black males,

12.7% of Hispanic males, and 3.5%

of white males will have served time.

The chances of going to prison

decline with advancing age

The life table calculations also provide

estimates of the likelihood of going to

prison at some time during the rest of

life among persons not previously

Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison

Table 2. Chances of going to State or Federal prison at some time

during the rest of life, by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin

Percent expected to go to State or Federal prison at some time during

the rest of life among persons not previously incarcerated, by age 

Birth 20 25 30 35 40 45

Total 5.1% 4.5% 3.1% 2.1% 1.4% .9% .6%

Sex

Male 9.0% 7.9% 5.5% 3.7% 2.5% 1.6% 1.0%

Female 1.1 1.0 .8 .6 .3 .2 .1

Race/Hispanic origin

White* 2.5% 2.3% 1.7% 1.2%

.9% .6% .4%

Male 4.4 4.1 3.0 2.1 1.5 1.1 .8

Female .5 .5 .4 .3 .2 .1 .1

Black* 16.2% 14.1% 9.6% 6.0% 3.6% 2.0% 1.2%

Male 28.5 25.3 17.3 10.8 6.5 3.6 2.1

Female 3.6 3.5 2.8 1.9 1.1 .6 .4

Hispanic 9.4% 8.7% 6.4% 4.9% 3.8% 2.3% 1.6%

Male 16.0 14.8 11.1 8.6 6.8 4.3 3.0

Female 1.5 1.5 1.2 .9 .6 .4 .2

Note: Estimates were obtained by substracting the cumulative

percent first incarcerated for each age from the lifetime likelihood

of incarceration. (See

Methodology

, page 8.)

*Excludes persons of Hispanic origin.

Why lifetime estimates exclude

admissions to local jails

Jails are locally operated correctional

facilities that confine persons before

and after adjudication. Unlike pris-

ons, jails admit persons with sen-

tences of a year or less. Jails also

hold a wide variety of categories of

inmates  including those persons

awaiting arraignment or trial; those

with sentences of more than a year

and awaiting transfer to State or

Federal facilities; and those tempo-

rarily detained, under protective

custody, or awaiting transfer to

appropriate health facilities.

Estimates of the lifetime likelihood

of incarceration are limited to the

chances of going to State or Federal

prison. Data on first admissions

to local jails, which are needed

to incorporate the chances of going

to a local jail in these calculations,

do not exist:

In 1993, when the most recent

Census of Local Jails was con-

ducted, the annual number of new

admissions to local jails totaled 9.8

million  nearly 30 times the num-

ber of new court commitments to

State and Federal prison during that

year. (See

Jails and Jail Inmates

1993-94,

NCJ-151651, April 1995.)

The census did not collect any data

on the number of persons admitted

to jail for the first time.

Most jail inmates serve only a few

days before release. (See

Pretrial

Release of Felony Defendants,

1992

, NCJ-148818, November

1994.) As a result, surveys of in-

mates based on persons held on a

single day will not provide reliable

statistics on those persons admitted

during a 12-month period.

incarcerated. Unlike the lifetime

chances and the cumulative percents

by age, these estimates represent the

chances of going to prison in the future

for persons not previously sentenced

to prison.

If age-specific first-incarceration rates

remain unchanged, the future chances

of going to prison among persons not

previously incarcerated decline with

age. For example, among U.S. resi-

dents who are age 30 and have not

been previously incarcerated, an esti-

mated 2.1% are expected to go to

prison at some time before they die

(table 2). Among those 35 years old,

an estimated 1.4% will go to prison;

among those age 40, fewer than 1%.

The chances of going to prison decline

with age among all persons regardless

of their sex, race, or Hispanic origin.

The likelihood of going to prison is

highest among black males and His-

panic males. Among men age 30 or

younger, blacks have a greater chance

of incarceration than Hispanics;

among men age 35 or older, Hispanics

have a greater chance of incarceration

than blacks.

Except for black and Hispanic males,

persons who reach age 45 without

having been sentenced to prison will

have less than a 1% chance of going

to prison during the rest of their life.

After age 45, about 0.1% of all females

and 0.8% of white males are expected

to be incarcerated for the first time.

The number of first admissions by

age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin

All of the life table calculations are de-

rived from the number of first admis-

sions to prison by age. Based on the

1991 surveys of State and Federal

prisoners, a total of 169,773 persons

in State and Federal prison at the time

of the survey had been admitted to

prison for the first time during the pre-

vious 12 months. An estimated

157,148 persons had been admitted

to State prison and 12,625 to Federal

prison. These estimates, however, ex-

clude persons who had been admitted

and then subsequently released during

the 12 months prior to the surveys.

To obtain the total number of first ad-

missions, a series of adjustment fac-

tors (by sex, race, and Hispanic origin)

were applied to the survey estimates.

Based on data from the 1990 and 1991

National Corrections Reporting Pro-

gram, these factors take into account

the number of persons who entered

and then were released prior to the

surveys.

Overall, nearly 20% of all persons ad-

mitted from court during the period

(July 16, 1990, to July 15, 1991) were

released prior to the surveys. As a re-

sult, an adjustment factor of 1.245 was

applied to the survey estimate to pro-

duce a total of 211,400 first admis-

sions. Separate factors were applied

to each group by sex, race, and His-

panic origin. (See

Methodology

for

details.)

Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison

Table 3. Characteristics of persons admitted to State or Federal

prisons for the first time during the 12 months preceding July 1991

Percent of persons admitted

Characteristic Total State Federal

Number of

persons admitted

169,773 157,148 12,625

Most serious offense

Violent offenses 32.8% 34.9% 7.3%

Homicide 5.7 6.1 .6

Sexual assault 7.5 8.1 .3

Robbery 9.9 10.3 4.5

Assault 8.1 8.7 1.2

Property offenses 24.5% 25.3% 14.8%

Burglary 10.1 10.9 0.0

Larceny 5.4 5.7 1.7

Fraud 4.6 4.0 11.8

Drug offenses 33.4% 31.1% 61.6%

Trafficking 21.4 19.3 46.6

Possession 11.3 11.2 13.2

Public-order offenses 8.5% 8.1% 12.9%

Other offenses .8% .6% 3.3%

Prior sentence to probation

No 36.4% 34.7% 62.5%

Yes 62.5 65.3 37.5

Number of times

1 36.2 37.5 25.5

2 15.6 16.4 7.3

3 or more 10.7 11.4 4.7

Prior sentence to local jail

No 67.6% 66.9% 85.1%

Yes 31.4 33.1 14.9

Number of times

1 14.6 15.1 10.0

2 6.1 6.5 2.0

3 or more 10.8 11.6 2.9

Current sentence length

Mean

85 mo 86 mo 73 mo

Median 60 60 51

Note: The 1991 surveys of State and Federal prisoners provided estimates

of persons in prison at the time of each survey who had been admitted for the first

time during 12 months preceding the surveys. Excluded from these estimates are

persons admitted during the 12 months who had been released prior to the surveys.

Data on offense were known for 98% of first admissions; on prior sentences

to probation and jail for 99%; and on sentence length for 96%.

Detail may not sum to total because only selected offenses are presented.

Includes those inmates who had been admitted to juvenile facilities.

Excludes persons with sentences of life, life without parole, life plus additional

years, and death.

Number of first admissions

1991 Estimated

survey total

estimate

number

Total 169,773 211,400

Sex

Men 154,002 190,100

Women 15,771 21,600

Race/Hispanic origin

White 57,461 72,500

Black 73,066 92,100

Hispanic 35,414 40,600

Other 3,832 6,200

Age at admission

17 or younger 5,664 7,100

18-24 62,494 77,800

25-34 62,170 77,400

35-44 28,000 34,900

45-54 7,549 9,400

55 or older 3,896 4,900

Note. Detail may not add to total because

categories were estimated separately.

Characteristics of first admissions

Among persons admitted to State or

Federal prison for the first time in the

12 months prior to the 1991 inmate

surveys, nearly a third had committed

a violent offense (table 3). Another

third had committed a drug offense,

and a quarter a property offense. The

most frequent offense among first time

admissions was drug trafficking 

19.3% of all State prisoners and 46.6%

of Federal prisoners.

The type of offense leading to the first

admission to prison varied with the age

of the offender. About 22% of first-

time prisoners age 45 or older had

committed a sexual assault, compared

to fewer than 5% among those under

age 25 (table 4). Nearly 20% of first-

time prisoners under age 20 had com-

mitted robbery, and 13% burglary,

compared to 1% of those age 45 or

older who had committed robbery and

fewer than 1% burglary. The percent-

age of persons admitted for a public-

order offense (such as driving under

the influence, commercialized vice,

weapons offenses, and Federal regula-

tory offenses) increased with age.

Two-thirds of all persons entering

prison for the first time had a prior sen-

tence to probation and a third had

been sentenced to a local jail or served

time in a juvenile facility. Persons en-

tering State prisons were more likely

than those entering Federal prison to

have had prior sentences to jail or

probation.

On average, persons entering State

prison for the first time had received a

total maximum sentence of 86 months;

those entering Federal prison received

a sentence of 73 months. Half of all

first admissions to State and Federal

prisons combined had received a sen-

tence of 60 months or more.

Such characteristics of first admissions

to State and Federal prison may also

be viewed prospectively  if the pat-

terns of offending and sentencing re-

main unchanged. For example,

among the 5.1% of the hypothetical

birth cohort who are expected to go to

prison during their lifetime, nearly two-

thirds will have been on probation and

a third will have served a sentence to a

local jail or juvenile facility before en-

tering prison. In addition, about two-

thirds of those going to prison will have

been sentenced for either a violent or

drug offense.

Steady chances of going

to prison since 1991

Although the life table calculations are

derived from survey data collected in

1991, other data suggest that the

chances of going to State or Federal

prison have not since changed. Data

collected annually in the National Pris-

oners Statistics (NPS) series, when

combined with data from surveys of

State prisoners conducted in 1974,

1979, 1986, and 1991, indicate that

factors underlying calculations of the

lifetime likelihood of incarceration have

not changed since 1991.

Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison

Table 4. Most serious offense of persons admitted to State and

Federal prison for the first time, by age

Percent of prison inmates, by age

Most serious

offense

All

ages

19 or

younger 20-24 25-34 35-44

or older

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Violent offenses 32.8% 44.5% 32.2% 29.4% 29.6% 39.8%

Homicide 5.7 6.0 4.8 5.8 4.9 9.9

Sexual assault 7.5 4.4 4.1 6.6 12.4 22.1

Robbery 9.9 19.7 12.3 8.8 3.8 1.1

Assault 8.1 12.6 8.6 6.8 7.2 6.4

Other violent

1.6 1.8 2.4 1.4 1.3 .3

Property offenses 24.5% 24.8% 28.7% 26.0% 18.7% 12.4%

Burglary 10.1 13.4 12.8 11.0 4.9 .1

Larceny 5.4 4.5 5.9 5.9 5.3 2.5

Fraud 4.6 1.4 3.7 5.2 5.8 9.1

Other property

4.4 5.5 6.4 3.9 2.7 .7

Drug offenses 33.4% 26.5% 30.8% 35.7% 39.1% 30.5%

Trafficking 21.4 18.6 19.2 23.6 23.3 18.8

Possession 11.3 7.6 10.8 11.3 15.2 11.1

Public-order offenses 8.5% 4.2% 7.7% 8.2% 11.1% 16.4%

Other offenses .8% 0 .6% .8% 1.5% .8%

Number of

persons admitted

166,754 21,802 46,014 60,760 28,395 9,783

Between 1991 and 1995 the number

of inmates in State and Federal prison

increased 36%, from 792,535 to

1,078,545 prisoners (table 5). Relative

to the number of adults in the U.S.

population, the prison population rose

from 419 per 100,000 adult residents

in 1991 to 550 per 100,000 in 1995.

During the same period the number

of new court commitments rose from

337,478 admitted in 1991 to 361,464

in 1995. New court commitments ex-

clude parole violators, other conditional

release violators, and other offenders

returned to prison.

Relative to the adult population, how-

ever, the number of new court commit-

ments remained almost unchanged 

179 new court commitments per

100,000 adults in 1991 compared to

184 per 100,000 in 1995.

First-incarceration rates, from which

life table estimates are derived, are a

subset of new court commitments.

Based on data from past BJS surveys

of inmates in State prison, about 50%

of all new court commitments in any

year are first admissions:

First admissions as

Survey a percent of new

year

court commitments*

1974 48.3%

1979 53.9

1986 48.6

1991 49.5

*Based on State inmates only, without

adjusting for differing time periods and

releases prior to each survey date.

Other than persons entering a State or

Federal prison for the first time, new

court commitments include those who

have been previously admitted on sen-

tences for other offenses.

In combination, these data suggest

that the rate of first incarceration has

remained relatively unchanged. While

the Nation's prison population has

risen by 36% since 1991, the number

of new court commitments has risen

by 7%. Assuming that the proportion

of first admissions among new court

commitments has stayed at 1974-91

levels, the number of first admissions

may be expected to have increased by

about 7%. When considered relative

to the adult resident population, the

first admission rate, like the new court

commitment rate, is likely to have

changed little since 1991. As a result,

the overall lifetime chances of going to

prison are projected to have remained

stable through yearend 1995.

Comparing lifetime rates to other

types of incarceration rates

Standard incarceration rates express

the prevalence of incarceration on a

single day or during a single year. At

yearend 1995 about half of 1% of the

Nation’s adult population was confined

in a State or Federal prison. During

1995 courts sent less than two-tenths

Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison

Table 5. Other measures of the prevalence of incarceration

in State or Federal prison, 1991-95

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

Inmates in State or Federal

prison at yearend

Number 792,535 850,566 909,381 990,147 1,078,545

Rate per 100,000 adult residents

419 446 472 510 550

Total annual admissions to prison

Number 502,464 520,340 518,562 544,034 562,724

Rate per 100,000 adult residents 266 273 269 280 287

New court commitments during the year

Number 337,478 356,498 341,722 346,097 361,464

Rate per 100,000 adult residents 179 187 177 178 184

Data are based on the total number of inmates in custody

of State and Federal adult correctional authorities.

All rates are based on the U.S. resident population age

18 or older on July 1 of each year and have been adjusted

for the 1990 Census undercount.

Admissions are of prisoners sentenced to more than 1 year

as reported annually in BJS' National Prisoners Statistics

program (NPS-1). Previously published counts have been

revised to include admissions to Federal prisons (reported

in the NCRP for 1991 and 1992) and admissions

to prisons in Alaska (estimated for 1994).

New court commitments are those entering

prison directly from a sentence by a court. In-

cludes new court admissions and persons enter-

ing prison for the first time on any probation

offenses. Excludes parole or other conditional re-

lease violators with new sentences, transfers,

AWOL or escapee returns, and returns from ap-

peal or bond.

Table 6. Estimates of the prevalence of incarceration,

by sex, race, and Hispanic origin

Prisoners in State or Federal

custody at yearend 1995

New court commitments to State

or Federal prison during 1995

Lifetime

likelihood of

incarceration

Number

Rate per

100,000 adult

residents

Number

Rate per

100,000 adult

residents

All 1,078,545 550 361,464 184 5.1%

Male 1,014,543 1,075 326,403 346 9.0%

White, non-Hispanic 362,100 507 116,300 163 4.4

Black, non-Hispanic 448,200 4,424 158,700 1,566 28.5

Hispanic 179,700 1,957 47,000 512 16.0

Female 64,002 63 35,061 36 1.1%

White, non-Hispanic 22,700 30 13,200 17 .5

Black, non-Hispanic 29,000 243 17,700 148 3.6

Hispanic 10,000 112 3,600 40 1.5

Total numbers of inmates in custody by sex are from NPS-1, 1995. Counts by race

and Hispanic origin were estimated from NPS jurisdiction totals for 1995 and data on race by

Hispanic origin from the 1991 surveys of State and Federal inmates.

All rates are based on the U.S. resident population age 18 or older on July 1, 1995,

and have been adjusted for the 1990 Census undercount.

New court commitments are restricted to prisoners with a sentence of more than

1 year. Total number of prisoners admitted by sex are from NPS-1, 1995. Counts

by race and Hispanic origin were estimated using data from the 1994 National

Corrections Reporting Program and the Federal Justice Statistics Program.

of 1% of U.S. residents to a State

or Federal prison (table 6).

These rates, though small when com-

pared to the total adult population, rep-

resent large numbers of offenders who

experience incarceration. At yearend

1995 nearly 1.1 million adults were

held in a State or Federal prison. Dur-

ing 1995 more than 360,000 adults re-

ceived a prison sentence of more than

a year from State and Federal courts.

Unlike 1-day prevalence rates or

1-year admission rates, the lifetime

likelihood measures summarize the

chances of going to prison over an en-

tire lifetime. Overall, the lifetime

chances (5.1%) based on the 1991

survey data were nearly 10 times the

1-day prevalence rates (0.55% or 550

per 100,000) observed at yearend

1995.

All of the measures of incarceration

reveal large differences by sex, race,

and Hispanic origin; however, differ-

ences in lifetime rates are typically

smaller than differences in 1-day

prevalence rates.

Over a lifetime men are about 9 times

more likely than women to serve a

sentence in a State or Federal prison.

At yearend 1995 men were 17 times

more likely than women to be in prison.

(See the figures below.)

Among non-Hispanic men, blacks are

6.5 times more likely than whites to

serve some time in prison during their

life, but 8.7 times more likely to be in

prison on any 1 day (table 6). Among

non-Hispanic women, blacks are 7.2

times more likely than whites to go to

prison during their life, but 8.1 times

more likely to be in prison on any 1

day.

Underlying these differences are varia-

tions between men and women and

among blacks, whites, and Hispanics

in rates of recidivism. (See

Recidivism

of Prisoners Released in 1983,

NCJ-11940, April 1989.)

Measures of the lifetime chances of

going to prison, based on age-specific

first-incarceration rates, are unaffected

by differences in recidivism among

groups. One-day prevalence rates,

however, include persons who have

been to prison before.

Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 19941995

Number of prisoners per 100,000

U.S. residents in each group

Black males

All males

White males

3,415

812

458

Black females

All females

White females

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1995

Number of prisoners per 100,000

U.S. residents in each group

One-day prevalence rates: the number of sentenced prisoners of each sex and race

in State or Federal prisons per 100,000 U.S. residents in each group, yearend 1980-95

Methodology

Life table techniques

Life table techniques were used to in-

corporate the effects of mortality and

incarceration into a single statistical

model. In generating estimates of the

lifetime chances of going to prison, the

model assumes a constant set of age-

specific mortality and incarceration

rates. Since the computations involve

two forms of exit from an initial cohort,

they represent an application of what

is known to demographers as double-

decrement life table techniques. (For

other applications, see Shryock and

Siegel,

The Methods and Materials of

Demography,

U.S. Department of

Commerce, October 1971.)

Conceptually, a life table traces a co-

hort of 100,000 newborn babies

through their entire lives under the as-

sumption that they will be subject to

currently observed age-specific mortal-

ity and incarceration rates. Lifetime

estimates are computed by succes-

sively reducing this hypothetical popu-

lation of 100,000 births by the number

of persons expected to die and the

number of persons incarcerated for the

first time at each year of age.

The cumulative sum of the projected

number of persons incarcerated at

each age represents the number of

persons per 100,000 expected to be

incarcerated over the course of a life-

time. Dividing the total by 1,000 yields

an estimate of the percentage of per-

sons likely to be incarcerated during

their lifetimes.

All of the life table calculations are

based on mortality and incarceration

rates for single years of age through

age 100. Calculations for age groups

0 to 13 and ages 56 or older were

based on data for each single year of

age and then grouped for presentation.

Calculations were closed out at age

100.

Age-specific mortality rates

The Population Division, U.S. Bureau

of the Census, provided age-specific

mortality data for 12 different demo-

graphic groups, defined by sex, race,

and Hispanic origin. The rates for

each demographic group were esti-

mated for each year of age based on

death data reported to the National

Center for Health Statistics for the

12-month period ending June 30,

1992.

Unlike crude death rates (based on the

number of deaths divided by the num-

ber of persons of the same age), age-

specific mortality rates represent the

proportion of persons alive at the be-

ginning of an age interval who are ex-

pected to die during the age interval.

For each year of age, these mortality

rates may be interpreted as the prob-

ability that persons at their

-th birth-

day will die before reaching their next

birthday. For ease of reporting, these

probabilities have been expressed as

rates per 100,000. (See Appendix ta-

ble 1.)

Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison

Appendix table 1. Age-specific

mortality rates, July 1, 1991, to

June 30, 1992

Age

Number

dying per

100,000

Age

Number

dying per

100,000

0 - 13 ... 36 189

14 48 37 201

15 67 38 211

16 84 39 220

17 97 40 230

18 104 41 242

19 107 42 255

20 109 43 270

21 111 44 286

22 113 45 305

23 114 46 326

24 114 47 352

25 113 48 383

26 113 49 418

27 114 50 458

28 118 51 502

29 122 52 552

30 128 53 608

31 134 54 670

32 141 55 737

33 151 56-60 ...

34 163 61-70 ...

35 175 71 or older ...

Note: These age-specific mortality rates represent

the proportion of persons alive at the beginning of the

age interval dying during the interval (times 100,000).

For basic assumptions and estimation procedures,

see

Population Projections of the United States, by

Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1993 to 2050

Current Population Reports, P25-1104, November

1993.

...Not shown, because all calculations were based

on rates for single years of age.

Estimating the number of persons at

risk to first incarceration

The population at risk to first incarcera-

tion is the number of persons in the

U.S. resident population by exact year

of age who have not been previously

incarcerated in a State or Federal

prison (Appendix table 2). To calcu-

late the population at risk, estimates of

the U.S. resident population on Janu-

ary 1, 1991, were obtained from the

U.S. Bureau of the Census. (See

U.S.

Population Estimates, by Age, Sex,

Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1990 to

1995,

PPL-41, February 1996.)

These published data were adjusted

for the undercount in the 1990 decen-

nial census, by age, sex, race, and

Hispanic origin, using the 1990 Post

Enumeration Survey. (National adjust-

ment data were released by the Popu-

lation Division, U.S. Bureau of the

Census, in May 1996.)

The number of persons in State and

Federal prison or on parole at yearend

1990 were then subtracted from these

adjusted population estimates to obtain

the population at risk to first incarcer-

ation. Excluded from the population

estimates by age, sex, race, and His-

panic origin were those persons known

to be incarcerated or previously incar-

cerated (on parole).

Estimating the number of first admis-

sions to prison

The number of persons admitted to a

State or Federal prison for the first

time by age were estimated by com-

bining information from the 1991 Sur-

vey of Inmates in State Correctional

Facilities and the 1991 Survey of In-

mates in Federal Correctional Facilities

with data from the 1990 and 1991 Na-

tional Corrections Reporting Program

(NCRP).

The surveys provide an estimate of

the number of persons still in prison

who first entered prison during the

12-month period before the surveys

were conducted. The NCRP files pro-

vide information with which to estimate

the number of persons who entered

during the 12-month period ending July

15, 1991, and who had already been

released prior to the survey dates.

Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison

Appendix table 2. Estimates of the number of U.S. residents

at risk to first incarceration, by age, January 1, 1991

U. S. resident

population,

1/1/91

Number of persons

in prison or on parole,

12/31/90

Number of persons

at risk to first incar-

ceration, 1/1/91

Age

(1) (2) (3)

0 - 13 53,027,564

53,027,564

14 3,404,925 116 3,404,809

15 3,401,313 117 3,401,196

16 3,436,075 1,536 3,434,539

17 3,475,353 2,665 3,472,688

18 3,567,430 8,520 3,558,910

19 3,994,822 16,911 3,977,911

20 4,280,930 27,097 4,253,833

21 3,984,084 37,062 3,947,022

22 3,802,151 45,201 3,756,950

23 3,767,250 48,969 3,718,281

24 3,921,965 52,667 3,869,298

25 4,088,954 58,505 4,030,449

26 4,259,741 61,782 4,197,959

27 4,363,213 61,696 4,301,517

28 4,257,819 63,465 4,194,354

29 4,539,502 62,230 4,477,272

30 4,736,119 61,758 4,674,361

31 4,409,419 61,695 4,347,724

32 4,416,914 58,519 4,358,395

33 4,454,119 52,088 4,402,031

34 4,465,642 51,317 4,414,325

35 4,393,016 45,608 4,347,408

36 4,189,629 43,912 4,145,717

37 4,080,089 41,183 4,038,906

38 3,874,636 34,604 3,840,032

39 3,948,668 30,362 3,918,306

40 3,975,783 31,065 3,944,718

41 3,659,296 26,700 3,632,596

42 3,669,784 22,640 3,647,144

43 3,789,348 20,441 3,768,907

44 3,459,696 18,114 3,441,582

45 2,920,338 16,132 2,904,206

46 2,824,184 13,152 2,811,032

47 2,967,838 10,540 2,957,298

48 2,775,615 10,699 2,764,916

49 2,647,185 9,020 2,638,165

50 2,480,456 7,818 2,472,638

51 2,284,098 6,901 2,277,197

52 2,271,908 5,648 2,266,260

53 2,214,263 5,208 2,209,055

54 2,160,156 4,697 2,155,459

55 2,130,246 4,580 2,125,666

56-60 10,352,262 15,699 10,336,563

61-70 20,174,425 13,638 20,160,787

71 or older 19,429,758 2,513 19,427,245

Estimates of the number of U.S. residents by age on 1/1/91 were obtained from the U.S. Bu-

reau of the Census (

U.S. Population Estimates, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin:1990

to 1995, PPL-41

.) Using Post Enumeration Survey (PES) estimates, the published data were

adjusted for the undercount in the 1990 decennial census by adding an adjustment factor for

each year of age.

The number of persons in State and Federal prison or on parole, by age, at yearend 1990

were estimated. Yearend totals were obtained from BJS' National Prisoners Statistics

(NPS-1) and Annual Parole Data Survey. Counts by each year of age were then estimated by

multiplying the age distribution of prisoners (from the 1991 inmate surveys) or by the age dis-

tribution of new parolees (from the 1991 National Corrections Reporting Program).

Estimates were calculated by subtracting column (2) from column (1). This procedure may

result in a slight overestimate of the population at risk and thereby lead to an underestimate of

the percent entering prison. (See

Limitations of the life table estimates

, page 13.)

The State and Federal inmate surveys

were conducted in June, July, and

August of 1991. Included in these sur-

veys were detailed questions about the

current and past prison sentences of

State and Federal inmates. A total of

13,986 inmates in State prisons and

6,572 inmates in Federal prisons were

interviewed. (For a description of the

sample designs and accuracy of the

survey estimates, see

Comparing Fed-

eral and State Prison Inmates, 1991

NCJ-145864.)

These surveys permit identification of

those inmates who had entered prison

for the first time on any sentence dur-

ing the 12-month period prior to the

conduct of the survey. Based on the

midpoint of the survey period, the sur-

veys cover those inmates who entered

prison after July 15, 1990, and who

were still in prison 12 months later.

Estimates by age, sex, race, and His-

panic origin, were then developed us-

ing weighting factors derived from the

probability of selection in each sample.

For each demographic group, the num-

ber of first admissions by age were

obtained by adding estimates from the

State and Federal surveys (Appendix

table 3).

The survey estimates, however, under-

state the total number of first admis-

sions to prisons  excluded from the

surveys are those persons admitted

during the 12-month period who had

already been released. To correct for

this incomplete coverage, adjustment

factors were calculated based on data

reported in the 1990 and 1991 NCRP

collections. (For a description of

NCRP reporting criteria, see

National

Corrections Reporting Program, 1991

NCJ-145861.)

Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison

Appendix table 3. Estimates of the number and rate of first admissions

to State or Federal prison, by age, July 16, 1990, to July 15, 1991

First admissions to State or Federal prison

during 12 months preceding the 1991 surveys

Age at first

admission

Number in prison

at time of survey

Total number

admitted during

12-month period

Rate per 100,000

U.S. residents

(1) (2) (3)

0 - 13 0 0 0

14 60 75 2

15 415 517 15

16 1,717 2,138 62

17 3,472 4,323 124

18 6,530 8,131 228

19 9,638 12,001 302

20 12,025 14,973 352

21 8,425 10,490 266

22 9,035 11,250 299

23 7,598 9,461 254

24 9,243 11,509 297

25 7,386 9,197 228

26 7,839 9,761 233

27 7,507 9,347 217

28 7,388 9,199 219

29 6,774 8,435 188

30 5,831 7,260 155

31 6,560 8,168 188

32 5,019 6,249 143

33 3,876 4,826 110

34 3,990 4,968 113

35 4,692 5,842 134

36 4,089 5,091 123

37 3,799 4,730 117

38 3,018 3,758 98

39 2,840 3,536 90

40 2,690 3,349 85

41 2,083 2,594 71

42 1,957 2,437 67

43 1,425 1,774 47

44 1,407 1,752 51

45 1,024 1,275 44

46 940 1,170 42

47 1,063 1,324 45

48 1,009 1,256 45

49 964 1,200 45

50 746 929 38

51 367 457 20

52 422 525 23

53 524 652 30

54 490 610 28

55 538 670 32

56-60 1,813 2,257 ...

61-70 1,134 1,412 ...

71 or older 411 512 ...

...Not shown, because subsequent calculations were

based on rates for single years of age.

The number of persons admitted to a State or Federal prison for the first time were esti-

mated from information in the 1991 inmate surveys. These surveys, conducted in June,

July, and August 1991, provide an estimate by age of the number of inmates still in prison

who had been admitted for the first time in the previous 12 months. Not included in the

surveys are those who had been admitted during the 12-month period and had already

been released.

Ratio adjustment factors derived from the 1990-91 NCRP, when multiplied

by column (1) provide an estimate of the total number of first admissions.

Calculated by dividing column (2) by the number of persons at risk to first

incarceration (Appendix table 2, column 3) and then multiplying by 100,000.

The NCRP data provide counts by sex,

race, and Hispanic origin of the num-

ber of new court commitments to State

or Federal prison during the 12-month

period ending July 15, 1991. The

NCRP data also provide counts of

those released before July 15, 1991,

among those who had been admitted

during the period. For each group, an

adjustment factor was computed by di-

viding the number of new court com-

mitments by the number of new court

commitments minus the number of re-

leases (Appendix table 4). These fac-

tors were then multiplied by the survey

estimates to generate the total number

of first admissions for each age group.

To illustrate the calculation and use of

the NCRP adjustment factors, consider

the estimate of the number of per-

sons admitted to prison for the first

time at age 20. Based on the com-

bined estimates from the State and

Federal surveys, a total of 12,025 per-

sons age 20 were first admitted to

prison between July 16, 1990, and July

15, 1991. The NCRP data reveal that

19.7% of all new court commitments

during the period had been released

before the end of the period. By multi-

plying 12,025 by the adjustment factor

1.245 ( or 1/.803), the actual total num-

ber of first admissions was estimated

at 14,973.

Estimates of the rate of first admis-

sions to State or Federal prison at

each age (Appendix table 3, column 3)

were calculated by dividing the number

of persons admitted to State or Fed-

eral prison during the 12 months prior

to the 1991 surveys (column 2) by the

estimated number at risk to first incar-

ceration in each age group (Appendix

table 2, column 3) and then multiplying

by 100,000.

For example, approximately 14,973 of

the estimated 4,253,833 persons at

risk were admitted to prison for the first

time at age 20 in the 12 months prior

to the 1991 surveys  the equivalent

of 352 per 100,000 persons age 20 in

the U.S. resident population.

Calculating the lifetime chances

of going to prison

To illustrate the application of life table

techniques to the lifetime chances of

going to prison, consider the following

computations for the hypothetical co-

hort of 100,000 births:

1. Estimates of the expected number

of persons in the original population of

100,000 who will die during each age

interval were obtained by multiplying

the age-specifc mortality rates (from

Appendix table 1) by the number of

persons alive and not previously incar-

cerated at each year of age (Appendix

table 5, columns 1 and 2).

For example, among those persons

who reach age 20 without having been

previously incarcerated, a total of 106

are expected to die before reaching

age 21 (that is, 97,563 times the rate

of .00109).

2. The number of persons in this hy-

pothetical cohort who are at risk to in-

carceration during an age interval was

then calculated by subtracting the

number dying from the number alive

and not previously incarcerated at the

beginning of the age interval (column 1

minus column 2).

97,457 of the persons who survived

to age 20 without being incarcerated

are expected to reach age 21 (not

shown).

Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison

Appendix table 4. NCRP adjustment

factors for estimating the total

number of first admissions to

prison, from July 16, 1990, to

July 15, 1991

Total Male Female

Total

1.245 1.235 1.370

Non-Hispanic

White

1.262 1.251 1.391

Black 1.261 1.250 1.385

Hispanic

1.146 1.141 1.228

Note: Adjustment factors based on new court com-

mitments and first releases as reported in the 1990

and 1991 NCRP for the period July 16, 1990, to

July 15, 1991. Data were restricted to 28 States

and the Federal Bureau of Prisons, which provided

information on admission and release records.

Data were further restricted to inmates with a total

maximum sentence of more than a year. Each

adjustment factor represents the ratio of the total

number of new court commitments during the

12-month period to the number of new court com-

mitments minus the number of releases during

the same period. For presentation, the adjustment

factors were rounded to 3 decimal places.

3. The projected number of persons in

the original 100,000 population who will

be admitted to prison at each age (col-

umn 3) was then obtained by applying

the age-specific first admission rates

(from Appendix table 3) to the number

of persons alive and not previously

incarcerated.

Among those 20 years old in the

original population who had not previ-

ously been incarcerated and were ex-

pected to reach their next birthday, 343

are expected to be incarcerated before

their 21st birthday (.00352 times

97,457).

4. The number of persons in the origi-

nal 100,000 population who are ex-

pected to be incarcerated by the time

they reach a specific age was then cal-

culated by summing the number incar-

cerated at each age for all younger

age groups (column 4).

The cumulative sum of persons age

20 or younger, for instance, is 1,064.

This number indicates that of the origi-

nal 100,000 population, 1,064 (or

1.06%) will be incarcerated before their

21st birthday.

5. An estimate of the lifetime likelihood

of incarceration is obtained by sum-

ming the number incarcerated for all

age groups. As a result, 5,147 per-

sons in this hypothetical population of

100,000 (or 5.15%) are expected to go

to prison at least once during their

lifetime.

6. These procedures also provide esti-

mates of the likelihood of going to

prison in the future for persons not yet

incarcerated at any given age (column

6). For each age interval, the percent

expected to go to prison in the future

was estimated by subtracting from

5,147 the cumulative number incarcer-

ated before reaching the age interval

(column 5); then dividing by the num-

ber of persons alive and not yet incar-

cerated at the beginning of that age

interval (column 1); and multiplying by

100%.

Among persons who live to age 20

without being incarcerated, the likeli-

hood of going to prison in the future

(4.54%) was calculated by subtracting

721 (the cumulative number incarcer-

ated before age 20) from 5,147; divid-

ing by 97,563; and multiplying by

100%.

Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison

Appendix table 5. Estimating the lifetime likelihood

of going to State or Federal prison

Hypothetical population of 100,000 births

reduced by mortality and incarceration in

each successive year of age

Likelihood of going to

prison during rest of life

Age at first

admission

Number alive

and not incar-

cerated at be-

ginning of age

interval

Expected

number of

deaths

Expected

number of

first admis-

sions

Cumulative

number of

first admis-

sions

Number

expected

to go to

prison

Percent

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

0 - 13 100,000 1,217 0 0 5,147 5.15

14 98,783 48 2 2 5,147 5.21

15 98,733 66 15 17 5,145 5.21

16 98,652 82 62 79 5,130 5.20

17 98,508 96 122 201 5,068 5.15

18 98,290 103 224 425 4,946 5.03

19 97,963 104 296 721 4,722 4.82

20 97,563 106 343 1,064 4,426 4.54

21 97,114 109 257 1,321 4,083 4.20

22 96,748 109 290 1,611 3,825 3.95

23 96,349 109 245 1,856 3,536 3.67

24 95,995 110 285 2,141 3,291 3.43

25 95,600 108 218 2,359 3,006 3.14

26 95,274 108 221 2,580 2,788 2.93

27 94,945 108 206 2,786 2,567 2.70

28 94,631 112 207 2,993 2,361 2.49

29 94,312 115 178 3,171 2,153 2.28

30 94,019 120 146 3,317 1,976 2.10

31 93,753 125 176 3,493 1,830 1.95

32 93,452 133 133 3,626 1,654 1.77

33 93,186 141 102 3,728 1,520 1.63

34 92,943 151 105 3,833 1,418 1.53

35 92,687 162 124 3,957 1,314 1.42

36 92,401 175 113 4,070 1,190 1.29

37 92,113 185 108 4,178 1,076 1.17

38 91,820 193 90 4,268 969 1.06

39 91,537 202 82 4,350 879 0.96

40 91,253 209 78 4,428 797 0.87

41 90,966 221 64 4,492 719 0.79

42 90,681 231 61 4,553 655 0.72

43 90,389 244 42 4,595 594 0.66

44 90,103 258 46 4,641 552 0.61

45 89,799 274 39 4,680 506 0.56

46 89,486 292 37 4,717 467 0.52

47 89,157 313 40 4,757 429 0.48

48 88,804 341 40 4,797 390 0.44

49 88,423 369 40 4,837 350 0.40

50 88,014 403 33 4,870 309 0.35

51 87,578 439 18 4,888 277 0.32

52 87,121 481 20 4,908 259 0.30

53 86,620 528 25 4,933 239 0.28

54 86,067 575 25 4,958 214 0.25

55 85,467 631 26 4,984 189 0.22

56-60 84,810 4,100 90 5,074 163 0.10

61-70 80,620 14,058 52 5,126 73 0.04

71 or older 66,510 ... 21 5,147 21 0.00

Note: Calculations for ages 0 to 13 and ages 56 or older are based on data for each single

year of age and then grouped for presentation. Also for presentation, data in columns

2 and 3 were rounded to produce the totals in column 4.

...Not shown.

To estimate the number expected to die at each year of age, age-specific mortality rates

(from Appendix table 1) were multiplied by the number of persons alive and not previously

incarcerated (column 1).

To estimate the number expected to go to prison at each year of age, age-specific first

admission rates (from Appendix table 3, column 3) were multiplied by the number of persons

surviving (column 1 minus column 2, above).

The number expected to go to prison at each age and remaining ages was estimated by subtracting

from 5,147 the cumulative number previously incarcerated (column 4, previous age interval).

Percents were calculated by dividing the number expected to go to prison (column 5) by

the number alive and at risk to first incarceration (column 1) and then multiplying by 100%.

Limitations of the life table estimates

1. The age-specific incarceration rates

are based upon the experiences of

prisoners interviewed at one point in

time, and do not incorporate a forecast

of future rates of imprisonment, which

may be affected by changes in criminal

behavior, changes in law enforcement,

and changes in sentencing policies.

Life table techniques assume stable

mortality and first-incarceration rates.

Recent data suggest that rates of first

incarceration have remained relatively

constant since 1991.

2. All of the calculations are based only

on incarceration in State or Federal

prison. Prior incarcerations in juvenile

facilities and local jails and prior proba-

tion supervision were excluded be-

cause of the lack of data permitting

estimation of the number of first ad-

missions to these forms of correctional

supervision. The estimates in this re-

port generally approximate the likeli-

hood of being incarcerated as an adult

for a felony.

3. Estimates of the number of first ad-

missions to prison by age, sex, race,

and Hispanic origin are subject to sam-

pling and nonsampling errors. Be-

cause a sample rather than a complete

enumeration of the State and Federal

prison population was conducted, the

estimated number of first admissions

may vary depending on the size of the

estimate and the size of the base

population for each demographic

group. (For estimates of the sampling

errors for the 1991 surveys, see

Com-

paring Federal and State Prison In-

mates, 1991,

NCJ-145864.)

Nonsampling error can be attributed to

many sources, such as nonresponse,

differences in interpretation of ques-

tions, recall difficulties, and processing

errors. Among inmates, the number of

first admissions may be slightly over-

estimated because of underreporting

of criminal histories. The full extent of

nonsampling error is unknown.

4. Estimates of the population at risk

to first incarceration by age may be

overestimated. Although the popula-

tion was adjusted for those persons in

prison or on parole, the total number of

previously incarcerated persons in the

U.S. resident population is unknown.

As a result, the age-specific rates of

first incarceration may also be under-

estimated, leading to an underestimate

of the lifetime likelihood of incarcera-

tion. (Calculations for population sub-

groups that experience high rates of

incarceration are likely to be most

affected.)

Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison

The Bureau of Justice Statistics

is the statistical agency of the

U.S. Department of Justice.

Jan M. Chaiken, Ph.D., is director.

BJS Special Reports address a

specific topic in depth from one or

more datasets that cover many

topics.

Thomas P. Bonczar and Allen J.

Beck, Ph.D., wrote this report.

Tom Hester and Priscilla Middleton

edited the report. Marilyn Mar-

brook, assisted by Yvonne Boston,

administered final production.

March 1997, NCJ-160092

This report and many of its data,

as well as other reports and statis-

tics, may be found at the Bureau

of Justice Statistics Internet World

Wide Web site:

http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/